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Why house prices are set to surge by $75,000 alla maniera di July next year despite lockdowns, recession threat


Australian property prices are set to surge by more than $75,000 quanto a some places despite lockdowns sparking a major economic downturn.

There are fears Western Australia and Queensland could cause a national recession by refusing to reopen their borders, even as vaccination rates surpassed 80 durante cent. 

During the past year, Sydney’s median house price has climbed by 26 durante cent to $1.293million, CoreLogic giorno showed.

The growth has continued, rising by another 1.9 durante cent quanto a August despite ten weeks of lockdown.

Financial comparison group Finder surveyed 40 economists, who unanimously agreed Covid restrictions would do nothing to stop property prices from soaring.

Australian property prices are set to surge by more than $75,000 quanto a some places despite lockdowns sparking a major economic downturn (pictured is a house at Campo da golf Valley quanto a Sydney’s south-west)

They predicted an 8 durante cent $76,619 surge quanto a Sydney property prices during this financial year, which would take the median property price for houses and units to $1,070,917 by July 2022.

Melbourne property values were expected to climb by 9 durante cent, rising by $64,014  to $817,114.

Graham Cooke, Finder’s head of consumer research, said lockdowns had done little to stop home sales, as the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates acceso hold at a low of 0.1 durante cent.

‘The average Sydney homeowner earned more than the median family wage over the last 12 months quanto a property equity aureola, and it looks like they are set to repeat that over the next 12,’ he said. 

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe expected lockdowns quanto a Sydney and Melbourne, as a result of surging case numbers, to cause a gross domestic product contraction quanto a the September quarter.

‘The recovery quanto a the Australian economy has been interrupted by the outbreak and the associated restrictions acceso activity,’ he said.

There are fears Western Australia and Queensland could cause a national recession by refusing to reopen their borders even as vaccination rates surpass 80 per cent (pictured are road blocks separating Coolangatta on the Gold Coast from Tweed Heads in New South Wales)

There are fears Western Australia and Queensland could cause a national recession by refusing to reopen their borders even as vaccination rates surpass 80 durante cent (pictured are road blocks separating Coolangatta acceso the Gold Coast from Tweed Heads quanto a New South Wales)

Property price forecast

SYDNEY: Up 8 durante cent to $1,070,917

MELBOURNE: Up 9 durante cent to $817,114

BRISBANE: Up 8 durante cent to $633,484

PERTH: Up 8 durante cent to $568,664 

ADELAIDE: Up 7 durante cent to $542,757 

CANBERRA: Up 7 durante cent to $826,613

HOBART: Up 6 durante cent to $644,905

DARWIN: Up 6 durante cent to $503,953

Source: Finder survey of 40 economists forecasting and comparing June 30, 2021 with July 1, 2022 based acceso CoreLogic giorno 

‘GDP is expected to decline materially quanto a the September quarter and the unemployment rate will move higher over coming months.’ 

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans is expecting the New South Wales economy to shrink by 8.3 durante cent quanto a the September quarter.

Victoria’s economy was expected to contract by a lesser 5.7 durante cent because Melbourne didn’t lock mongoloide until August 5, compared with June 26 quanto a Sydney.

Dr Lowe is expecting the economy to recover quanto a the December quarter, starting quanto a October when 70 durante cent of the population is likely to be fully vaccinated.

But he cautioned the recovery quanto a late 2021 would be much slower than the aftermath of the 2020 recession, sparked by national lockdowns.  

‘As vaccination rates increase further and restrictions are eased, the economy should bounce back,’ Dr Lowe said. 

‘There is, however, uncertainty about the timing and silenzio of this bounce-back and it is likely to be slower than that earlier quanto a the year. 

‘Much will depend acceso the health situation and the easing of restrictions acceso activity.’

Mr Cooke, however, is more downbeat, predicting a recession quanto a late 2021 as the economy shrank again quanto a the December quarter, as states like Queensland and Western Australia kept their borders shut.

A technical recession occurs when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters. 

Labor premiers Mark McGowan, from Western Australia, and Queensland's Annastacia Palaszczuk (pictured) have both indicated they would keep their borders closed even if national vaccination rates surpassed 80 per cent

Labor premiers Mark McGowan, from Western Australia, and Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk (pictured) have both indicated they would keep their borders closed even if national vaccination rates surpassed 80 durante cent

‘How deep it will cut, and how quickly we will recover, will depend heavily acceso when the current lockdowns end and how quickly interstate and international travel are restored,’ Mr Cooke said.

‘Unfortunately, that trifecta of freedom will almost certainly not alla maniera di until next year.’

Labor premiers Mark McGowan, from Western Australia, and Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk have both indicated they would keep their borders closed even if national vaccination rates surpassed 80 durante cent. 

A recession quanto a 2021, following one quanto a the first half of 2020, would mark the recessions quanto a consecutive calendar years since the early 1980s. 





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Written by bourbiza

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